DUAN Wansuo's Homepage

段晚锁
中国科学院大气物理研究所LabESM
电话：010-82995302
传真：010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn

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Papers

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Land-sea contrast leading to a speedup of landfalling tropical cyclones. Quanjia Zhong, Johnny C. L. Chan, Wansuo Duan, Shifei Tu, Jianping Li, Jianping Gan and Ruiqiang Ding. Nature Geoscience, 2025, acceptance in principle.[PDF]
Exploration on dynamics of El Niño diversity based on nonlinear forcing singular vector-assimilation approach. Lingjiang Tao and Wansuo Duan. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 2025, 130, e2025JC022777..[PDF]
Disillusionment and rebirth of deterministic weather forecasting and climate prediction: A perspective on the Lorenz’s chaos theory. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan and Xiaohao Qin. Science China Earth Sciences, 2025, 68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1714-8. 确定性天气预报和气候预测的幻灭与新生: 洛伦兹经典混沌论文解读。穆穆，段晚锁，秦晓昊。中国科学：地球科学，2025，55，doi: 10.1360/SSTe-2025-0253. [PDF]
Improve the forecast reliability of unusual tropical cyclone tracks using ensemble forecasts generated by O-CNOPs. Han Zhang, Wansuo Duan, Yongjie Huang, Pak Wai Chan, Stephane Vannitsem. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2025, 68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1668-1.用O-CNOPs方法改进异常台风路径集合预报的可靠性。张晗，段晚锁，黄永杰，陈柏纬，Stephane Vannitsem. 中国科学：地球科学，2025， 55, doi: 10.1360/N072025-0124[PDF]
基于并行计算的正交条件非线性最优扰动在正压准地转模式集合预报中的应用。汪叶, 段晚锁, 麻俊杰。大气科学，2025. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2502.24133[PDF]
认识大气环流和气候系统动力学 100 年进步. 李建平，陈文，周天军，刘屹岷，黄刚，刘晓东，侯兆禄，丁瑞强，胡鹏，陈尚锋，谭本馗，付遵涛，封国林，罗德海，段晚锁，陈晓龙，姜继兰，唐颢苏，胡开明，屈侠. 气象学报, 2025, 83(3): 582-636[PDF]
Overview and Prospect of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction. Lili Lei, Fuzhong Weng, Wansuo Duan, Yaodeng Chen, Lin Zhang, et al.Journal of Meteorological Research, 2025, 39(3): 559-592. 数值天气预报资料同化的发展与展望. 雷荔傈，翁富忠，段晚锁，陈耀登，张林, 等. 气象学报, 2025, 83(3): 503-535[PDF]
A Review on Development, Challenges, and Future Perspectives of Ensemble Forecast. Jing Chen, Yuejian Zhu, Wansuo Duan, Xiefei Zhi, Jinzhong Min, et al. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2025. , 39(3), 534–558. 集合预报进展、挑战及展望. 陈静, 朱跃建, 段晚锁, 智协飞, 闵锦忠等，气象学报，2025,83(3):480-502 [PDF]
Uncertainty of “Pangu-Weather” in Bay of Bengal storm track forecasts: Target observation perspective. Zeyun Zhou, Wansuo Duan, Ruowen Yang, Xiaohao Qin and Yonghui Li. Atmospheric Research, 2025, 326, 108313. [PDF]
Improving Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill Through Assimilating Target Observation Achieved by AI-Based Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation. Yonghui Li, Wansuo Duan, Wei Han, Hao Li and Xiaohao Qin. JGR-Atmospheres, 2025, 130, e2024JD043261.[PDF]
Combined Dynamical-Deep Learning ENSO Forecasts. Yipeng Chen, Yishuai Jin, Zhengyu Liu, Xingchen Shen, Xianyao Chen, Xiaopei Lin, Ronghua Zhang, Jingjia Luo, Wenjun Zhang, Wansuo Duan, Fei Zheng, Michael McPhaden, and Lu Zhou. Nature Communications, 2025. 16: 3845...[PDF]
重污染天气事件预报的目标观测: 思考和展望。杨丽超，段晚锁。气候与环境研究，2025，接收。[PDF]
Sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for advancing beyond the summer predictability barrier of Indian Ocean Dipole. Rong Feng and Wansuo Duan. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2025, 110,101552[PDF]
A Machine Learning-Based Observation Operator for FY-4B GIIRS Brightness Temperatures Considering the Uncertainty of Label Data. Yonghui Li, Wei Han, Wansuo Duan, Zeting Li and Hao Li. Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, 2025, 2, e2024JH000449..[PDF]
Sensitive areas for target observation associated with meteorological forecasts for dust storm events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Lichao Yang and Wansuo Duan. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2025, e4975. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4975[PDF]
A New Method to Calculate Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations for Ensemble Forecasting. Junjie Ma, Wansuo Duan, Zhuomin Liu, and Ye Wang, Advances in Atmopsherci Sciences, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4069-y. [PDF]
A nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainty of high-impact ocean-atmosphere event prediction. Mu Mu and Wansuo Duan. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4467-9..[PDF]
目标观测与极端天气预报。段晚锁，秦晓昊，杨丽超。自然杂志，2024, 46(6), 395-405[PDF]
Consistent Initial Error Modes causing the Largest Prediction Errors and the Strongest Predictability Barrier for Two Types of El Niño Events in CMIP6. Jingjing Zhang, Shujuan Hu, Wansuo Duan, Jianjun Peng, and Meiyi Hou. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2024, 129, e2024JC021633.[PDF]
FuXi‐En4DVar: An Assimilation System Based on Machine Learning Weather Forecasting Model Ensuring Physical Constraints. Yonghui Li, Wei Han, Hao Li, Wansuo Duan, Lei Chen, Xiaohui Zhong, Jincheng Wang, Yongzhu Liu and Xiuyu Sun. Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, 51, e2024GL111136 .[PDF]
Ensemble forecasting of Indian Ocean Dipole events generated by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method. Rong Feng, Wansuo Duan, Lei Hu, and Ting Liu. International Journal of Climatology, 2024, 44(14), 5119–5135.[PDF]
Why does there occur spring predictability barrier for eastern Pacific El Niño but summer predictability barrier for central Pacific El Niño? Can You, Meiyi Hou, and Wansuo Duan. Climate Dynamics, 2024, 62, 9769–9788[PDF]
MJO‑equatorial Rossby Wave Interferences in the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation. Yuntao Wei, Hongli Ren, Wansuo Duan and Guodong Sun. Climate Dynamics, 2024, 62, 9097–9116 .[PDF]
Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires. Binhe Luo, Dehai Luo, Aiguo Dai, Cunde Xiao, Ian Simmonds, Edward Hanna, James Overland, Jiaqi Shi, Xiaodan Chen, Yao Yao, Wansuo Duan, Yimin Liu, Qiang Zhang, Xiyan Xu, Yina Diao, Zhina Jiang and Tingting Gong. Nature Communications, 2024, 15,5399 .[PDF]
Exploring sensitive area in the whole Pacific for two types of El Niño predictions and their implication for targeted observations. Qianqian Qi, Wansuo Duan*, Xia Liu and Hui Xu, Frontiers in Earth Science-Atmospheric Science, 2024, 12:1429003. [PDF]
Dynamic channel selection based on vertical sensitivities for the assimilation of FY-4A geostationary interferometric infrared sounder targeted observations. Yonghui Li, Wei Han and Wansuo Duan. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2024, 150(763), 3305–3321.[PDF]
Nonlinear Optimization Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Mu Mu , Wansuo Duan and Jiafeng Wang, East-west Journal of Mathematics, Thailand, 2002, Special Volume, 155-164.[PDF]
Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation: A New Approach to the Stability and Sensitivity Studies in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. Mu, M. and W. S. Duan. 16th Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference. 2007, Australia. [PDF]
To improve the prediction skills of typhoon intensity by identifying target observation using particle filter assimilation method. Jingjing Zhang, Wansuo Duan, Shujuan Hu, Deqian Li, Xiaohao Qin, Meiyi Hou, Boyu Chen. Atmospheric Research, 2024，303, 107326.[PDF]
Coupled conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations and their application to ENSO ensemble forecasts. Duan Wansuo, Hu Lei, Feng Rong, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2024, 67(3), 826-842. 耦合条件非线性最优扰动及其在ENSO集合预报研究中的应用。段晚锁、胡蕾和冯蓉。中国科学：地球科学，2024, 54(3), 845-861。[PDF]
The Sensitive Area for Targeting Observations of Paired Mesoscale Eddies associated with Sea Surface Height Anomaly Forecasts. Jiang Lin, Duan Wansuo, Wang Hui, JGR-Ocean, 2024, 129, e2023JC020572.[PDF]
The initial errors occurring over Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and exerting large disturbing effect on ENSO predictability. Guangshan Hou, Meiyi Hou, and Wansuo Duan, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2024, 105, 101426.[PDF]
Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation: Applications to Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Systems. Duan Wansuo, Yang Lichao, Xu Zhizhen and Chen Jing. Chapter 17 in Numerical Weather Prediction: East Asian Perspectives edited by Seon Ki Park. Springer Atmospheric Sciences, 2023. [PDF]
Westward-Propagating Disturbances Shape Diverse MJO Propagation. Wei Yuntao, Ren Hongli, Duan Wansuo, Sun Guodong. Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, 50, e2023GL104778, doi: 10.1029/2023GL104778.[PDF]
Spatiotemporal estimation of analysis errors in the operational global data assimilation system at the China Meteorological Administration using a modified SAFE method. Feng jie, Wang Jincheng, Dai Guokun, Zhou Feifan, Duan Wansuo. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 2023, 149: 2301–2319, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4507.[PDF]
Evaluating the joint effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific initial errors on two types of El Niño prediction using particle filter approach. Hou Meiyi, Duan Wansuo, Zhi Xiefei. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2023, 11(7), 1292.[PDF]
An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM2.5 forecasts in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Yang Lichao, Duan Wansuo and Wang Zifa. Geoscientific Model Development, 2023, 16, 3827–3848.[PDF]
Recent advances in China on the predictability of weather and climate. Duan Wansuo, Yang Lichao, Mu Mu, Wang Bin, Shen Xueshun, Meng Zhiyong and Ding Ruiqiang. Advances in Atmospheric Science, 2023, 40(8), 1521−1547.[PDF]
Evaluation of the sensitivity on mesoscale eddy associated with the sea surface height anomaly forecasting in the Kuroshio Extension. Lin Jiang, Wansuo Duan, Hui Wang, Hailong Liu, Lingjiang Tao. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023, 10:1097209. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1097209.[PDF]
A multi-model prediction system for ENSO. Ting Liu, Yanqiu Gao,Xunshu Song, Chuan Gao, Linjiang Tao, Youmin Tang, Wansuo Duan, Ronghua Zhang, Dake Chen. Science China Earth Sciences. 2023, 66, 1231-1240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-022-1094-0；一个ENSO多模式集合预报系统介绍。刘婷，高艳秋，宋迅殊，高川，陶灵江，唐佑民，段晚锁，张荣华，陈大可。中国科学：地球科学，2023， 53(6): 1235-1245.[PDF]
Role of the thermodynamic structure of the inner core in predicting the intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Quanjia Zhong, Xu Lu, Xuguang Wang, Ruiqiang Ding, Wansuo Duan, Zhaolu Hou. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 2023, 128, e2023JD038645. [PDF]
Impact of the low wavenumber structure in the initial vortex wind analyses on the prediction of the intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Quanjia Zhong, Xuguang Wang, Ruiqiang Ding, Xu Lu, Yongjie Huang, Wansuo Duan.. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 2022, 128, e2022JD037082. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037082.[PDF]
2022 年汛期气候趋势预测与展望。彭京备, 郑飞范方兴, 陈红, 郎咸梅, 詹艳玲, 林朝晖, 张庆云 , 林壬萍, 李超凡, 马洁华, 田宝强, 包庆, 穆松宁, 宗海锋, 王磊, 段晚锁, 周天军。气候与环境研究，2022, 27(4), 547-558.[PDF]
Impacts of initial zonal current errors on the predictions of two types of El Niño events. Tao L. J., M. Mu, L. Wang, X. H. Fang, W. S. Duan, and R. H. Zhang. JGR-Oceans, 2023, 128, e2023JC019833.[PDF]
A New Approach to Represent Model Uncertainty in the Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones: The Orthogonal Nonlinear Forcing Singular Vectors. Zhang Yichi, Duan Wansuo, Stéphane Vannitsem and Zhang Han. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 2023, 149: 2206–2232, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4502.[PDF]
Using an ensemble nonlinear forcing singular vector data assimilation approach to address the ENSO forecast uncertainties caused by the “spring predictability barrier” and El Niño diversity. Zheng Yingcong, Duan wansuo, Tao Lingjiang, Ma junjie. Climate Dynamics, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06834-3.[PDF]
Using the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations approach to address the uncertainties of tropical cyclone track forecasts generated by the WRF model. Zhang Han, Duan Wansuo and Zhang Yichi. Weather and Forecasting, 2023, 38, 1907–1933, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0175.1.[PDF]
Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO.Zhong W. X., W.J. Cai, A. Sullivan,W.S. Duan, S. Yang. Journal of Climate. 2023, 40, 791–803. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0461.1.[PDF]
Evaluation and Projections of Extreme Precipitation using a Spatial Extremes Framework. Yang Lichao, Christian L. E. Franzke, Duan Wansuo, International Journal of Climatology, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8038.[PDF]
近海台风立体协同观测科学试验进展。赵兵科，汤杰，雷小途，张雪芬，段晚锁，李泓，高志球，钱传海，鲍旭炜，骆婧瑶，张帅，地球科学进展，2022，37(8)：771-785。[PDF]
Toward targeted observations of the meteorological initial state for improving the PM2.5 forecast of a heavy haze event that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Yang Lichao, Duan Wansuo, Wang Zifa, and Yang Wenyi, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022, 22, 11429–11453, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11429-2022..[PDF]
Effects of dropsonde data in field campaigns on forecasts of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in 2020 and role of CNOP sensitivity. Qin Xiaohao, Duan Wansuo, Pak Wai Chan, Chen Boyu, Kang-Ning Huang, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2022, 40, 791–803. http: //doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2136-9.[PDF]
An ensemble forecasting method for dealing with the combined effects of the initial and model errors and a potential deep learning implementation. Duan Wansuo, Ma Junjie, Stephane Vannitsem, Mon. Wea. Rev., 2022,150(11), 2959-2976. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0007.1.[PDF]
台风集合预报研究进展综述. 张璟，李泓，段晚锁，张峰。大气科学学报，2022, 45(5), 713-727。[PDF]
The Deep Learning Galerkin Method for the General Stokes Equations. Li Jian, Jing Yue, Zhang Wen, and Duan Wansuo, Journal of Scientific Computing, 2022, 93, 5, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10915-022-01930-8.[PDF]
伴随敏感性方法、第一奇异向量方法以及条件非线性最优扰动方法在台风目标观测敏感区识别中的比较研究，周菲凡, 叶一苇, 段晚锁, 等.大气科学, 2022，46(X): 1−14.[PDF]
Complex network analysis of fine particulate matter (PM2.5): transport and clustering, Na Ying, Duan Wansuo, Zhao Zhidan, Fan Jingfang, Earth System Dynamics. 2022. 13, 1029-1039.[PDF]
The different relationships between ENSO spring Persistence Barrier and Predictability Barrier. Jin Yishuai, Liu Zhengyu, Duan Wansuo, Journal of Climate, 2022, 35(18), 6207-6218.[PDF]
Toward an optimal observational array for improving two flavors of El Niño predictions in the whole Pacific. Meiyi Hou, Youmin Tang, Wansuo Duan, Zheqi Shen, Climate Dynamics, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06342-w.[PDF]
A novel precursory signal of the Central Pacific El Niño event: Eastern Pacific cooling mode.Tao L.J., and W.S. Duan, Climate Dynamics,2022, 59, 2599–2617. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06229-w[PDF]
The most sensitive initial error of sea surface height anomaly forecasts and its implication for target observations of mesoscale eddies. Jiang L., W. S. Duan, and H.L. Liu, J. Physical Oceanography. 2022. 52, 723-740[PDF]
A new approach to data assimilation for numerical weather forecasting and climate prediction. Duan Wansuo, Feng Rong, Yang Lichao, Jiang Lin, Journal of Applied Analysis and Computation. 2022, 12(3), 1007-1021[PDF]
非线性最优扰动方法在热带气旋目标观测研究和外场试验中的应用。段晚锁、秦晓昊，地球科学进展，2022。37(2), 165-176[PDF]
Model errors of an intermediate model and their effects on realistic predictions of El Niño diversity.Tao L.J., W.S. Duan, L. Jiang, International Journal of Climatology, 2022, 42( 15), 7443– 7464. doi: 10.1002/joc.7656[PDF]
Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Generate Initial Perturbations in ENSO Ensemble Forecasts. Zhou Q., L. Chen, and W.S. Duan, etc. Weather and Forecasting. 2021, 36, 2101-2111. [PDF]
台风强度模拟的海温目标观测研究，姚佳伟，段晚锁，大气科学，2022，46(1): 83−97. doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2103.20256[PDF]
The Initial Errors in the Tropical Indian Ocean that Can Induce a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for La Niña Events and Their Implication for Targeted Observations. Zhou Qian, Wansuo Duan, Xu Wang, Xiang Li, Ziqing Zu, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2021. 38(9), 1566−1579, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0427-1[PDF]
How does El Nino affect predictability barrier of its accompanied positive Indian Ocean Dipole event? Liu D., W.S. Duan, and R. Feng. J. Marine Sciences and Engineering. 2021. 9, 1169. https://doi.org/10.3390/ jmse9111169[PDF]
The most sensitive initial error modes modulating intensities of CP- and EP- El Niño events. Qi Qianqian, Duan Wansuo, and Xu Hui, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101257[PDF]
Interdecadal change in the relationship between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation and Eastern Australian rainfall in the following autumn. Linye Song, Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Wansuo Duan, and Yun Li, Climate Dynamics. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05864-z[PDF]
On the sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting, Jingjing Zhang , Shujuan Hu*, Wansuo Duan*. AOSL, 2021. 14 (5), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2021.100054[PDF]
Which Features of the SST Forcing Error Most Likely Disturb the Simulated Intensity of Tropical Cyclones? Yao Jiawei, Duan Wansuo, Qin Xiaohao, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2021, 38, 581–602. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0073-z.[PDF]
Typhoon intensity forecasting based on LSTM using the rolling forecast method, Shijin Yuan, Cheng Wang, Bin Mu, Feifan Zhou, and Wansuo Duan, 2021. Algorithms, 14, 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/a14030083.[PDF]
Optimally growing initial errors of El Nino events in the CESM, Xu Hui, Chen Lei, Duan Wansuo. 2021, Climate Dynamics, 56, 3797–3815. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05668-1[PDF]
Forecast uncertainty of rapid intensification of typhoon Dujuan (201521) induced by uncertainty in the boundary layer. Qin Xiaohao and Duan Wansuo, Atmosphere, 2020. 11,1263, doi: 10.3390/atmos11111263.[PDF]
Model forecast error correction based on the Local Dynamical Analog method: an example application to the ENSO forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model.Zhaolu Hou, Bin Zuo, Shaoqing Zhang, Fei Huang, Ruiqiang Ding, Wansuo Duan,Jianping Li.Geophysical Research Letters. 2020. 47,DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088986.[PDF]
Predictable patterns of wintertime surface air temperature in Northern Hemisphere and their predictability sources in SEAS5, Fan Hongdou, Lin Wang, Yang Zhang, Youmin Tang, Wansuo Duan, and Lei Wang, Journal of Climate, 2020. 33, 10743-10754. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0542.1[PDF]
On the use of near-neutral backward Lyapunov vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems.Stéphane Vannitsem, Wansuo Duan, Climate Dynamics, 2020. 55, pages1125–1139. doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05313-3[PDF]
Improving forecasts of El Niño diversity: a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach. Tao Linjiang, Duan Wansuo, and Stephane Vannitsem, Climate Dynamics. 2020. 55: 739-754. doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05292-5[PDF]
Sensitivity on tendency perturbations of tropical cyclone short-range intensity forecasts generated by WRF. Qin Xiaohao, Duan Wansuo, and Xu Hui, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2020. 37, 291-306.[PDF]
Errors in current velocity in the low-latitude north Pacific: results from the regional ocean modeling system. Wen Xixi, Duan Wansuo, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, 36, 397-416.[PDF]
近海台风立体协同观测科学试验, 雷小途, 张雪芬, 段晚锁, 李泓, 高志球, 钱传海, 赵兵科, 和汤杰, 地球科学进展: 2019, 34 (7), 671-678.[PDF]
Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino predictions: implication for targeted observation. Zhou Qian, Duan Wansuo, Hu Junya. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology. 2019. 38, 1602–1615. doi: 10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4[PDF]
Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track with orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations. Huo Zhenhua, Duan Wansuo, Feifan Zhou, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019. 36(2), 231-247.[PDF]
The Initial Condition Errors Occurring in the Indian Ocean Temperature That Cause “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Qian Zhou, Mu Mu, and Wansuo Duan. JGR-Ocean, 2019 doi: 10.1029/2018JC014403[PDF]
Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics for La Niña predictions. Hu Junya, Duan Wansuo, and Zhou Qian, Climate Dynamics. 2019, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04631-5[PDF]
Indian Ocean Dipole-related predictability barriers induced by initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM, Feng Rong, and Duan Wansuo, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2019. 36, 658-668. doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8224-9.[PDF]
数值天气预报、气候预测的集合预报方法：思考与展望。段晚锁，汪叶，霍振华，周菲凡。气候与环境研究， 2019。24（3），396-406。[PDF]
Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability. Hou Meiyi, Wansuo Duan, Xiefei Zhi. Climate Dynamics. 2019. 53, 5561–5581 doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04888-w. [PDF]
初始扰动振幅和集合样本数对CNOPs集合预报的影响，汪叶, 段晚锁，大气科学，2019，43(4)，919-933。[PDF]
Using a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach to reduce model error effects in ENSO forecasting. Tao Lingjiang, and Wansuo, Duan, Weather and Forecasting. 2019. 34, 1321-1342. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0050.1[PDF]
Towards optimal observational array for dealing with challenges of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions due to diversities of El Niño. Duan Wansuo, Li Xuquan, Tian Ben. Climate Dynamics, 2018. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4082-x.[PDF]
Impact of SST anomaly events over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension on the "summer prediction barrier". Wu Yujie, Wansuo Duan. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018. 35, 397-409.[PDF]
Predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events. Duan Wansuo, Mu Mu, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, 2018. doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.80.[PDF]
"Summer Predictability Barrier" of Indian Ocean Dipole Events and Corresponding Error Growth Dynamics, Liu Da, Duan Wansuo, Feng Rong, Tang Youmin, JGR: Ocean, 2018. 123, doi: 10.1029/2017JC013739[PDF]
季风与ENSO的选择性相互作用：年循环和春季预报障碍的影响。杨崧，邓开强，段晚锁，大气科学，2018，42(3), 570-589 [PDF]
粒子滤波同化在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动目标观测中的应用。段晚锁，封凡，侯美夷，大气科学，2018，42(3), 677-695[PDF]
Asymmetry of the predictability limit of the warm ENSO phase. Hou Zhaolu, Jianping Li, Ruiqiang Ding, Christina Karamperidou, Wansuo Duan, Ting Liu, and Jie Feng, 2018. Geophysical Research Letters. 45. 10.1029/2018GL077880. [PDF]
Investigating the initial errors that cause predictability barriers for IOD events using CMIP5 model outputs. Feng Rong and Wansuo Duan, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018. 35(10), 1305-1320.[PDF]
Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: model uncertainty. Zhou Feifan, Wansuo Duan, He Zhang, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018. 35, 1277-1290. [PDF]
The application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations method to typhoon track ensemble forecasts. Huo Zhenhua and Wansuo Duan, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2018.10.1007/s11430-018-9248-9[PDF]
北京地区一次空气重污染过程的目标观测分析[J]。刘娜，段晚锁，王自发，唐晓，周菲凡。气候与环境研究。 2018, 23，619-632 [PDF]
Progress in ENSO prediction and predictability study. Tang Youmin, Ronghua Zhang, Ting Liu, Wansuo Duan, et al. National Science Review, 2018, 5(6), 840-857. doi:10.1093/nsr/nwy105.[PDF]
The role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole events. Feng Rong and Wansuo Duan, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2018. 61. doi:10.1007/s11430-018-9296-2[PDF]
Relationship between optimal precursors for Indian Ocean Dipole events and optimally growing initial errors in its prediction. Mu, Mu, Rong Feng, and Wansuo Duan. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2017, 122, doi:10.1002/2016JC012527. [PDF]
Reducing the prediction uncertainties of high-impact weather and climate events: an overview of studies at LASG. Duan Wansuo and Rong Feng. Journal of Meteorological Research. 2017. 31, 224-235, doi: 10.1007/s13351-016-6099-6.[PDF]
Nonlinearity modulating intensities and spatial structures of Central Pacific- and Eastern Pacific-El Niño events, Duan Wansuo, Chaoming Huang, Hui Xui, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2017. 34,737-756.[PDF]
On the "spring predictability barrier" for strong El Nino events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system. Qi Qianqian, Wansuo Duan, Fei Zheng, and Youmin Tang. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2017, doi: 10.1007/s11430-017-9087-2[PDF]
耦合模式中北太平洋和北大西洋海表面温度年代际可预报性和预报技巧的季节依赖性。容新尧、刘征宇、Liu Yun、段晚锁，地球科学进展，2017, 32, 382-395.[PDF]
The application of nonlinear local Lyapynov vectors to the Zebiak-Cane model and their performance in ensemble prediction. Hou Zhaolu, Jianping Li, Ruiqiang Ding, Jie Feng, Wansuo Duan. Clim Dyn. 2017. Doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3920-6[PDF]
The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects. Mu Mu, Duan Wansuo, Tang Youmin, Science China: Earth Sciencess, 2017. 60, 2001-2012. doi:10.1007/s11430-016-9101-x[PDF]
Periodic streamlines in the three-dimensional square cell pattern. Li, J.B., Duan, W.S.. Appl. Math. Mech.: 2001 ,22(2) ,220-228[PDF]
The predictability problems in numerical weather and climate prediction. Mu, M., Duan, W. S., and Wang, J.C.. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2002 ,19(2) ,191-204[PDF]
气候系统可预报性理论研究. 穆穆，李建平，丑纪范，段晚锁，王家城. 气候与环境研究: 2002 ,7 (2) ,227-235[PDF]
A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan. Chin. Sci. Bull.: 2003 ,48 ,1045-1047[PDF]
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Bin Wang. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics: 2003 ,10 ,493-501[PDF]
Chaotic and resonant streamlines in quasi-symmetric flows. Wansuo Duan, Li Jibin. Mathematic Applicata (应用数学): 2004 ,17 ,603-611[PDF]
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation as the optimal precursors for El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. Wansuo Duan, Mu Mu, Bin Wang. J. Geophy. Res.: 2004 ,109 ,D23105[PDF]
Recent advances in predictability studies in China (1999-2002). Mu Mu, Duan Wansuo, Chou Jifan. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2004 ,21 ,437-443[PDF]
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications to the studies of weather and climate predictability. Mu Mu, Duan Wansuo. Chinese Science Bulletin: 2005 ,50 ,2401-2407[PDF]
Applications of nonlinear optimization methods to quantifying the numerical model for ENSO. Wansuo Duan, Mu Mu. Progress in Natural Sciences: 2005 ,15 ,915-921[PDF]
Applications of nonlinear optimization method to the numerical studies of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Wansuo Duan, Mu Mu. Appl. Math. Mech.: 2005 ,26 ,636-646[PDF]
数值模式误差对降水四维变分资料同化及预报的影响. 王铁，段晚锁，郑琴. 气候与环境研究: 2006 ,11 ,605-615[PDF]
用非线性最优化方法研究El Nino可预报性的进展与前瞻. 段晚锁，穆穆. 大气科学: 2006 ,30 ,759-766[PDF]
The Tangent Linear Model and Adjoint of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and Its Application to the Predictability of ENSO. Xu Hui, W. S. Duan and J. C. Wang. International Geoscience and Remote Sencing Symposium: 2006 ,644-647[PDF]
Investigating decadal variability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Wansuo Duan, Mu Mu. J. Geophy. Res.: 2006 ,111 ,C07015[PDF]
Applications of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation in predictability study and sensitivity analysis of weather and climate. Mu Mu, Duan Wansuo, Xu Hui, and Wang Bo. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2006 ,23 ,992-1002[PDF]
Progress in predictability studies in China (2003-2006). Wansuo Duan, Zhina Jiang, Hui Xu. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2007 ,24 ,1086-1098[PDF]
Season-dependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and ENSO predictability in a theoretical model. Mu Mu, Duan Wansuo,Wang Bin. Journal of Geophysical Research: 2007 ,112 ,D10113[PDF]
A kind of initial errors related to “spring predictability barrier“ for El Nino event in Zebiak-Cane model. Mu Mu , Xu Hui, Duan Wansuo. Geophysical Research Letters: 2007 ,34 ,L03709[PDF]
What kind of initial errors cause the severest prediction uncertainties for El Nino in Zebiak-Cane model. Hui Xu, Wansuo Duan. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2008 ,25 ,577-584[PDF]
Zebiak-Cane数值模式的可预报性分析. 刘新超，段晚锁，朱克云. 气候与环境研究: 2008 ,13 ,134-148[PDF]
Investigating a nonlinear characteristic of ENSO events by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Wansuo Duan, Feng Xue, and Mu Mu. Atmospheric Research: 2008[PDF]
Decisive role of nonlinear temperature advection in El Nino and La Nina amplitude asymmetry. Wansuo Duan, Hui Xu, Mu Mu. J. Geophysical Research: 2009 ,113 ,C01014[PDF]
赤道高频纬向风强迫对ENSO强度的影响. 骆海英，段晚锁，穆穆. 气候与环境研究: 2009 ,14(5) ,465-474[PDF]
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation: applications to stability, sensitivity, and predictability. Wansuo Duan, Mu Mu. Science in China (D): 2009 ,884-906[PDF]
Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model. Yu Yanshan, Wansuo Duan, Hui Xu, Mu Mu. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society: 2009 ,135 ,2146-2160[PDF]
Exploring the initial error that causes a significant spring predictability barrier for El Nino events. Wansuo Duan, Xinchao Liu, Keyun Zhu, and Mu Mu. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: 2009 ,114 ,C04022[PDF]
An extension of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Qiang Wang, Rui Zhang. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics: 2010 ,17 ,211-220[PDF]
A new strategy for solving a class of nonlinear optimization problems related to weather and climate predictability. Wansuo Duan, Haiying Luo. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2010 ,27 ,741-749[PDF]
Is model parameter error related to spring predictability barrier for El Nino events?Wansuo Duan, Rui Zhang. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2010 ,27 ,1003-1013[PDF]
The “Spring Predictability Barrier” Phenomenon of ENSO Predictions Generated with the FGOALS-g Model. Wei Chao, Duan Wansuo. AOSL: 2010 ,3(2) ,87-92[PDF]
Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability. Yuehua Peng, Wansuo Duan, Xiang Jie. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2011 ,28(6) ,1279-1290[PDF]
四个耦合模式ENSO后报试验的“春季预报障碍”.张雅乐、俞永强，段晚锁. 气象学报: 2012 ,70(3) ,506-519[PDF]
Progresses in the studies of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and predictability for weather and climate in China （2007-2010）. Zhou F., R. Ding, F. Guo, Z. Fu, W. Duan. Adv. Atmos. Sci.: 2012 ,5 ,1048-1062[PDF]
The amplitude-duration relation of the observed El Niño events. Wu Y., and W. Duan. Atmos. Oceano. Sci. Lett.: 2012 ,5 ,367-372[PDF]
Can the Uncertainties of Madden–Jullian Oscillation Cause a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for ENSO Events?Peng Y., W. Duan, and J. Xiang. Acta Meteorologica Sinica.: 2012 ,26 ,566-578 [PDF]
Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Niño predictions. Yu Y., M. Mu, W. Duan, T. Gong. JGR-Ocean: 2012 ,117 ,C06018[PDF]
Does model parameter error cause a significant spring predictability barrier for El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model. Yu. Y., M. Mu, W. Duan. J. Climate.: 2012 ,25 ,1263-1277[PDF]
The spring predictability barrier for El Nino events and its possible mechanism results from a fully coupled model. Duan W., C. Wei. Inter. J. Climatology: 2012 ,33 ,1280–1292[PDF]
条件非线性最优扰动方法在可预报性研究中的应用. 穆穆、段晚锁. 大气科学: 2013 ,37 (2) ,281–296[PDF]
数值天气预报和气候预测可预报性研究的若干动力学方法. 段晚锁，丁瑞强，周菲凡. 气候与环境研究: 2013[PDF]
Climate Variability and Predictability at Various Time Scales. Tang Y. An Soon-II, and W. Duan. Advances in Meteorology: 2013 ,Article ID 857831[PDF]
Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. Wang C., C. Li, M. Mu, W. Duan. Climate Dynamics: 2013 ,40 ,2887–2902[PDF]
The role of constant optimal forcing in correcting forecast model. Feng F., and W. Duan. Sciences in China (D): 2013 ,Vol.56 No.3 ,434–443[PDF]
Conditions under which CNOP Sensitivity Is Valid for Tropical Cyclone Adaptive Observations. Qin Xiaohao, Duan Wansuo, Mu Mu. Q.J. R. Meteor. Soc.: 2013 ,139 ,1544–1554[PDF]
The role of nonlinearities associated with air-sea coupling processes in El Nino’s peak-phase locking. Duan Wansuo, Zhang Rui, Yu Yanshan, and Tian Ben. Sciences in China (D): 2013[PDF]
Nonlinear forcing singular vector of a two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model. Duan W., F. Zhou. Tellus-A: 2013[PDF]
Behaviors of nonlinearities modulating El Nino events induced by optimal precursory disturbance. Duan W., Y. Yu, H. Xu, and P. Zhao. Climate Dynamics: 2013 ,40 ,1399–1413[PDF]
Modulation of PDO on the predictability of the inter-annual variability of early summer rainfall over South China. Duan W. L.Y. Song, Y. Li, and J.Y. Mao. JGR-Atmosphere: 2013 ,DOI: 10.1002/2013JD019862[PDF]
Simulations of two types of El Niño events by an optimal forcing vector approach. Duan W., B. Tian, and H. Xu. Climate Dynamics: 2013 ,DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1993-4[PDF]
Study on the “winter persistence barrier” of Indian Ocean dipole events using observation data and CMIP5 model outputs. Feng R., M. Mu, W. S. Duan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology: 2014 ,DOI 10.1007/s00704-013-1083-x[PDF]
Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation–related sea surface temperature anomalies. Duan, W. S., Wu, Y. Climate Dynamics: 2014, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2364-5[PDF]
A SVD-based ensemble projection algorithm for calculating conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Chen, L., Duan, W. S., and Xu, H. SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences: 2014, doi: 10.1007/s11430-014-4991-4[PDF]
Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability barrier” for El Niño events. Zhang, J., Duan, W. S., and Zhi, X. F.. SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences: 2014, DOI: 10.1007/s11430-014-4994-1[PDF]
ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区在热带太平洋海温的多模式集合预报中的应用.智协飞，张璟，段晚锁.大气科学:2014，doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.14181[PDF]
Time-dependent nonlinear forcing singular vector-type tendency error of the Zebiak-Cane model. Zhao, P., and Duan, W. S.. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett.: 2014, 7, 395-399, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.14.0026[PDF]
The combined effect of initial error and model error on ENSO prediction uncertainty generated by the Zebiak-Cane model. Zhao, P., and Duan, W. S.. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett.: 2014, 7, 447-452, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.14.0034[PDF]
The spatial patterns of initial errors related to the “winter predictability barrier” of the Indian Ocean dipole, Feng, R., and Duan, W. S., Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett.: 2014, 7, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.14.0018[PDF]
Revealing the most disturbing tendency error of Zebiak-Cane model associated with El Nino predictions by nonlinear forcing singular vector approach. Duan, W. S., and Zhao, P.. Climate Dynamics: 2014, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2369-0[PDF]
The “winter predictability barrier” for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: results from a fully coupled GCM. Feng, R., W. S. Duan, and M. Mu. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2014, 119, doi:10.1002/2014JC10473.[PDF]
Influence of Positive/Negative Indian Ocean Dipole on Pacific ENSO through Indonesian Throughflow: results from Sensitivity Experiments. Zhou, Qian, Wansuo Duan， Mu Mu， Rong Feng. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2014, doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4141-0.[PDF]
Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Dake Chen, Weidong Yu. National Science Review: 2015, 2,226-236[PDF]
The initial errors that induce a significant “spring predictability barrier” for El Nino events and their implications for target observations:results from an earth system model,Wansuo Duan and Junya Hu,Clim Dyn,2015,46(11), 3599-3615, DOI ：10.1007/s00382-015-2789-5[PDF]
Interannual Relationship between the Winter Aleutian Low and Rainfall in the Following Summer in South China,Linye Song and Wansuo Duan, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett, 2015,8(5) 271-276[PDF]
Comparison of the initial errors most likely to cause a spring predictability barrier for two types of El Nino events,Ben Tian and Wansuo Duan, Clim Dyn, 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2870-0[PDF]
Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and the “spring predictability barrier” for El Nino predictions. DuanWansuo, Mu Mu. Chapter 5 in Climate Change edited by Chin-Pei Chang, Michael Ghil, Mojib Latif, and John M. Wallace. World Scientific Series on Asian-Pacific Weather and Climate, 2015.[PDF]
The influence of boreal winter extratropical North Pacific Oscillation on Australian spring rainfall, Linye Song, Yun Li, and Wansuo Duan, Clim Dyn, 2015, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2895-4[PDF]
关于线性奇异向量和条件非线性最优扰动差别的一个注记。霍振华，段晚锁，气候与环境研究，2015，20（6）：715-725. [PDF]
Application of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Targeted Observation Studies of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Mu Mu, Wang Qiang, Duan Wansuo, and Jiang Zhina, J. Meteor. Res,. 2014, 28(5), 923-933, doi:10.1007/s13351-014-4057-8.[PDF]
An approach to generating mutually independent initial perturbations for ensemble forecasts: orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. Wansuo Duan, Zhenhua Huo, J. Atmos. Sci., 2016, 73, 997-1014. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0138.1[PDF]
Comparison of constant and time-variant optimal forcing approaches in El Niño simulations by using the Zebiak-Cane model. Tian Ben, Wansuo Duan, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2016. 33(6), 685-694, doi:10.1007/s00376-015-5174-8.[PDF]
Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions, Rong Feng, Wansuo Duan, and Mu Mu, Climate Dynamics, 2016, 48, 1173-1185. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3134-3.[PDF]
Relationship between optimal precursory disturbances and optimally growing initial errors associated with ENSO events: Implications to target observations for ENSO prediction, Junya Hu, Wansuo Duan, Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans,2016, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JC011386.[PDF]
A Time-scale Decomposed Threshold Regression Downscaling Approach to Forecasting South China Early Summer Rainfall,Linye Song, Wansuo Duan, Yun Li, and Jiangyu Mao, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 33, 1071-1084. doi:10.1007/s00376-016-5251-7.[PDF]
Seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension: low in summer and high in winter, Wu Yujie, Duan Wansuo, Rong Xinyao, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 2016, 121, doi:10.1002/2016JC011887.[PDF]
Numerical Analysis of the Mixed 4th-Order Runge-Kutta Scheme of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Approach for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Model,Xin Zhao, Jian Li, Wansuo Duan, and Dongqian Xue, Adv. Appl. Math. Mech., 2016, 8(6), 1023-1035. [PDF]
IOD-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors for IOD predictions from reanalysis data. Feng Rong, and Duan Wansuo. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2016, 60, 156-172, doi:10.1007/s11430-016-0103-9.[PDF]
The role of nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" for ENSO. Duan Wansuo, Zhao Peng, Hu Junya, Xu Hui,Journal of Meteorological Research, 2016. 30(6), 853-866, doi: 10.1007/s13351-016-6011-4.[PDF]