
段晚锁
中国科学院大气物理研究所LabESM
电话:010-82995302
传真:010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
中国科学院大气物理研究所LabESM
电话:010-82995302
传真:010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
个人简介
段晚锁,中国科学院大气物理研究所,研究员(二级;中科院特聘研究员;国科大岗位教授),博士生导师,全国百篇优秀博士论文,及国家杰出青年科学基金获得者。(曾)兼任"SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences" , "Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics", "Advance in Atmospheric Sciences"等杂志的编委,以及国际动力气象学委员会(ICDM)、世界气候研究计划(WCRP)中国委员会、国际气象和大气科学协会(IAMAS)中国委员会秘书长、中国气象学会地球系统数值预报专业委员会副主任委员等。目前的研究方向为:海气相互作用动力学,高影响天气气候事件可预报性动力学、目标观测、资料同化和集合预报等。
学术论文
- 基于并行计算的正交条件非线性最优扰动在正压准地转模式集合预报中的应用。汪叶, 段晚锁, 麻俊杰。大气科学,2025. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2502.24133[PDF]
- 认识大气环流和气候系统动力学 100 年进步. 李建平,陈文,周天军,刘屹岷,黄刚,刘晓东,侯兆禄,丁瑞强,胡鹏,陈尚锋,谭本馗,付遵涛,封国林,罗德海,段晚锁,陈晓龙,姜 继兰,唐颢苏,胡开明,屈侠. 气象学报, 2025, 83(3): 582-636[PDF]
- Overview and Prospect of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction. Lili Lei, Fuzhong Weng, Wansuo Duan, Yaodeng Chen, Lin Zhang, et al.Journal of Meteorological Research, 2025, 39(3): 559-592. 数值天气预报资料同化的发展与展望. 雷荔傈,翁富忠,段晚锁,陈耀登,张林, 等. 气象学报, 2025, 83(3): 503-535[PDF]
- A Review on Development, Challenges, and Future Perspectives of Ensemble Forecast. Jing Chen, Yuejian Zhu, Wansuo Duan, Xiefei Zhi, Jinzhong Min, et al. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2025. , 39(3), 534–558. 集合预报进展、挑战及展望. 陈静, 朱跃建, 段晚锁, 智协飞, 闵锦忠等,气象学报,2025,83(3):480-502 [PDF]
- Uncertainty of “Pangu-Weather” in Bay of Bengal storm track forecasts: Target observation perspective. Zeyun Zhou, Wansuo Duan, Ruowen Yang, Xiaohao Qin and Yonghui Li. Atmospheric Research, 2025, 326, 108313. [PDF]
- Improving Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill Through Assimilating Target Observation Achieved by AI-Based Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation. Yonghui Li, Wansuo Duan, Wei Han, Hao Li and Xiaohao Qin. JGR-Atmospheres, 2025, 130, e2024JD043261.[PDF]
- Combined Dynamical-Deep Learning ENSO Forecasts. Yipeng Chen, Yishuai Jin, Zhengyu Liu, Xingchen Shen, Xianyao Chen, Xiaopei Lin, Ronghua Zhang, Jingjia Luo, Wenjun Zhang, Wansuo Duan, Fei Zheng, Michael McPhaden, and Lu Zhou. Nature Communications, 2025. 16: 3845...[PDF]
- 重污染天气事件预报的目标观测: 思考和展望。杨丽超,段晚锁。气候与环境研究,2025,接收。[PDF]
- Sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for advancing beyond the summer predictability barrier of Indian Ocean Dipole. Rong Feng and Wansuo Duan. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2025, 110,101552[PDF]
- A Machine Learning-Based Observation Operator for FY-4B GIIRS Brightness Temperatures Considering the Uncertainty of Label Data. Yonghui Li, Wei Han, Wansuo Duan, Zeting Li and Hao Li. Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, 2025, 2, e2024JH000449..[PDF]
- Sensitive areas for target observation associated with meteorological forecasts for dust storm events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Lichao Yang and Wansuo Duan. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2025, e4975. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4975[PDF]
- A New Method to Calculate Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations for Ensemble Forecasting. Junjie Ma, Wansuo Duan, Zhuomin Liu, and Ye Wang, Advances in Atmopsherci Sciences, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4069-y. [PDF]
- A nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainty of high-impact ocean-atmosphere event prediction. Mu Mu and Wansuo Duan. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4467-9..[PDF]
- 目标观测与极端天气预报。段晚锁,秦晓昊,杨丽超。自然杂志,2024, 46(6), 395-405[PDF]
- Consistent Initial Error Modes causing the Largest Prediction Errors and the Strongest Predictability Barrier for Two Types of El Niño Events in CMIP6. Jingjing Zhang, Shujuan Hu, Wansuo Duan, Jianjun Peng, and Meiyi Hou. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2024, 129, e2024JC021633.[PDF]
- FuXi‐En4DVar: An Assimilation System Based on Machine Learning Weather Forecasting Model Ensuring Physical Constraints. Yonghui Li, Wei Han, Hao Li, Wansuo Duan, Lei Chen, Xiaohui Zhong, Jincheng Wang, Yongzhu Liu and Xiuyu Sun. Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, 51, e2024GL111136 .[PDF]
- Ensemble forecasting of Indian Ocean Dipole events generated by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method. Rong Feng, Wansuo Duan, Lei Hu, and Ting Liu. International Journal of Climatology, 2024, 44(14), 5119–5135.[PDF]
- Why does there occur spring predictability barrier for eastern Pacific El Niño but summer predictability barrier for central Pacific El Niño? Can You, Meiyi Hou, and Wansuo Duan. Climate Dynamics, 2024, 62, 9769–9788[PDF]
- MJO‑equatorial Rossby Wave Interferences in the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation. Yuntao Wei, Hongli Ren, Wansuo Duan and Guodong Sun. Climate Dynamics, 2024, 62, 9097–9116 .[PDF]
- Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires. Binhe Luo, Dehai Luo, Aiguo Dai, Cunde Xiao, Ian Simmonds, Edward Hanna, James Overland, Jiaqi Shi, Xiaodan Chen, Yao Yao, Wansuo Duan, Yimin Liu, Qiang Zhang, Xiyan Xu, Yina Diao, Zhina Jiang and Tingting Gong. Nature Communications, 2024, 15,5399 .[PDF]
- Exploring sensitive area in the whole Pacific for two types of El Niño predictions and their implication for targeted observations. Qianqian Qi, Wansuo Duan*, Xia Liu and Hui Xu, Frontiers in Earth Science-Atmospheric Science, 2024, 12:1429003. [PDF]
- Dynamic channel selection based on vertical sensitivities for the assimilation of FY-4A geostationary interferometric infrared sounder targeted observations. Yonghui Li, Wei Han and Wansuo Duan. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2024, 150(763), 3305–3321.[PDF]
- Nonlinear Optimization Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Mu Mu , Wansuo Duan and Jiafeng Wang, East-west Journal of Mathematics, Thailand, 2002, Special Volume, 155-164.[PDF]
- Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation: A New Approach to the Stability and Sensitivity Studies in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. Mu, M. and W. S. Duan. 16th Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference. 2007, Australia. [PDF]
- To improve the prediction skills of typhoon intensity by identifying target observation using particle filter assimilation method. Jingjing Zhang, Wansuo Duan, Shujuan Hu, Deqian Li, Xiaohao Qin, Meiyi Hou, Boyu Chen. Atmospheric Research, 2024,303, 107326.[PDF]
- Coupled conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations and their application to ENSO ensemble forecasts. Duan Wansuo, Hu Lei, Feng Rong, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2024, 67(3), 826-842. 耦合条件非线性最优扰动及其在ENSO集合预报研究中的应用。 段晚锁、胡蕾和冯蓉。中国科学:地球科学,2024, 54(3), 845-861。[PDF]
- The Sensitive Area for Targeting Observations of Paired Mesoscale Eddies associated with Sea Surface Height Anomaly Forecasts. Jiang Lin, Duan Wansuo, Wang Hui, JGR-Ocean, 2024, 129, e2023JC020572.[PDF]
- The initial errors occurring over Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and exerting large disturbing effect on ENSO predictability. Guangshan Hou, Meiyi Hou, and Wansuo Duan, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2024, 105, 101426.[PDF]
- Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation: Applications to Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Systems. Duan Wansuo, Yang Lichao, Xu Zhizhen and Chen Jing. Chapter 17 in Numerical Weather Prediction: East Asian Perspectives edited by Seon Ki Park. Springer Atmospheric Sciences, 2023. [PDF]
- Westward-Propagating Disturbances Shape Diverse MJO Propagation. Wei Yuntao, Ren Hongli, Duan Wansuo, Sun Guodong. Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, 50, e2023GL104778, doi: 10.1029/2023GL104778.[PDF]
Questions, comments, suggestions? E-Mail me, please!
duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn