段晚锁
中国科学院大气物理研究所LabESM
电话：010-82995302
传真：010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
中国科学院大气物理研究所LabESM
电话：010-82995302
传真：010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
Papers
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998
- 不同尺度初始误差对2021年台风烟花路径和强度模拟预报的影响。周菲凡，叶一苇，张晗，杨雅雯和段晚锁。大气科学，2025，49（2），550-564.[PDF]
- The summer predictability barrier phenomena of symmetric and asymmetric Indian Ocean dipole events. Ru Yi, Liu Da and Duan Wansuo. AOSL, 2025, 100733, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100733.[PDF]
- An approach to data assimilation for dealing with model error effect and its application. Lingjiang Tao, Xiaohao Qin, and Wansuo Duan. Chapter in Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications (Vol. V) edited by Seon Ki Park. Springer, 2025. Accepted.[PDF]
- New progresses in the study on target observation using CNOP for high-impact atmospheric and oceanic events predictions. Lichao Yang, Seungyeon Lee, Rong Feng and Wansuo Duan. Chapter in Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications (Vol. V) edited by Seon Ki Park. Springer, 2025. Accepted.[PDF]
- Exploration on dynamics of El Niño diversity based on nonlinear forcing singular vector-assimilation approach. Lingjiang Tao and Wansuo Duan. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 2025, 130, e2025JC022777..[PDF]
- Disillusionment and rebirth of deterministic weather forecasting and climate prediction: A perspective on the Lorenz’s chaos theory. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan and Xiaohao Qin. Science China Earth Sciences, 2025, 68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1714-8. 确定性天气预报和气候预测的幻灭与新生: 洛伦兹经典混沌论文解读。穆穆，段晚锁，秦晓昊。中国科学：地球科学，2025，55，doi: 10.1360/SSTe-2025-0253. [PDF]
- Improve the forecast reliability of unusual tropical cyclone tracks using ensemble forecasts generated by O-CNOPs. Han Zhang, Wansuo Duan, Yongjie Huang, Pak Wai Chan, Stephane Vannitsem. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2025, 68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1668-1.用O-CNOPs方法改进异常台风路径集合预报的可靠性。张晗，段晚锁，黄永杰，陈柏纬，Stephane Vannitsem. 中国科学：地球科学，2025， 55, doi: 10.1360/N072025-0124[PDF]
- 基于并行计算的正交条件非线性最优扰动在正压准地转模式集合预报中的应用。汪叶, 段晚锁, 麻俊杰。大气科学，2025. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2502.24133[PDF]
- 认识大气环流和气候系统动力学 100 年进步. 李建平，陈文，周天军，刘屹岷，黄刚，刘晓东，侯兆禄，丁瑞强，胡鹏，陈尚锋，谭本馗，付遵涛，封国林，罗德海，段晚锁，陈晓龙，姜继兰，唐颢苏，胡开明，屈侠. 气象学报, 2025, 83(3): 582-636[PDF]
- Overview and Prospect of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction. Lili Lei, Fuzhong Weng, Wansuo Duan, Yaodeng Chen, Lin Zhang, et al.Journal of Meteorological Research, 2025, 39(3): 559-592. 数值天气预报资料同化的发展与展望. 雷荔傈，翁富忠，段晚锁，陈耀登，张林, 等. 气象学报, 2025, 83(3): 503-535[PDF]
- A Review on Development, Challenges, and Future Perspectives of Ensemble Forecast. Jing Chen, Yuejian Zhu, Wansuo Duan, Xiefei Zhi, Jinzhong Min, et al. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2025. , 39(3), 534–558. 集合预报进展、挑战及展望. 陈静, 朱跃建, 段晚锁, 智协飞, 闵锦忠等，气象学报，2025,83(3):480-502 [PDF]
- Uncertainty of “Pangu-Weather” in Bay of Bengal storm track forecasts: Target observation perspective. Zeyun Zhou, Wansuo Duan, Ruowen Yang, Xiaohao Qin and Yonghui Li. Atmospheric Research, 2025, 326, 108313. [PDF]
- Improving Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill Through Assimilating Target Observation Achieved by AI-Based Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation. Yonghui Li, Wansuo Duan, Wei Han, Hao Li and Xiaohao Qin. JGR-Atmospheres, 2025, 130, e2024JD043261.[PDF]
- Combined Dynamical-Deep Learning ENSO Forecasts. Yipeng Chen, Yishuai Jin, Zhengyu Liu, Xingchen Shen, Xianyao Chen, Xiaopei Lin, Ronghua Zhang, Jingjia Luo, Wenjun Zhang, Wansuo Duan, Fei Zheng, Michael McPhaden, and Lu Zhou. Nature Communications, 2025. 16: 3845...[PDF]
- 重污染天气事件预报的目标观测: 思考和展望。杨丽超，段晚锁。气候与环境研究，2025，接收。[PDF]
- Sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for advancing beyond the summer predictability barrier of Indian Ocean Dipole. Rong Feng and Wansuo Duan. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2025, 110,101552[PDF]
- A Machine Learning-Based Observation Operator for FY-4B GIIRS Brightness Temperatures Considering the Uncertainty of Label Data. Yonghui Li, Wei Han, Wansuo Duan, Zeting Li and Hao Li. Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, 2025, 2, e2024JH000449..[PDF]
- Sensitive areas for target observation associated with meteorological forecasts for dust storm events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Lichao Yang and Wansuo Duan. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2025, e4975. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4975[PDF]
- A New Method to Calculate Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations for Ensemble Forecasting. Junjie Ma, Wansuo Duan, Zhuomin Liu, and Ye Wang, Advances in Atmopsherci Sciences, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4069-y. [PDF]
- A nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainty of high-impact ocean-atmosphere event prediction. Mu Mu and Wansuo Duan. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4467-9..[PDF]